Zero intrinsic value hides $13M of optionality.

The flexibility is measured as the difference between two portfolios that are identical in every respect except one: the Asia-Flex book may also source six DES-Long cargoes in Asia. The indexations are deliberately set so all six start out of the money, with the most profitable one just at the money.

FORWARD CURVES AND SIMULATIONS FROM 21 MAY 2​025 · HORIZON 2​026 TO 2​027 · PER-MMBTU VALUES ON 22.2M MMBTU (6 X 3.7M)

Run against today's forwards, both books produce the same plan and the same profit to the dollar: $188,895,430, with no Asia cargo matched. A price-only view puts the exercise threshold out of reach, and every forward point sits outside the exercise region. That is where most valuations stop.

Three thousand price paths, a thousand per volatility regime, each one re-optimised for both books. The base book rises above its forward value on its own; the Asia-Flex book rises further, and the gap between them is the option.

The same clause is worth six hundred thousand dollars in a calm market and thirteen million in a stressed one, a factor of twenty. An option that looks worthless today is a volatility position, and conceding it in a negotiation gives away the part of the book that pays when planning gets hard.

Counting matched Asia cargoes per path shows the mechanics behind the averages. In calm markets the book rarely goes beyond two; regular volatility clusters at three to five; under stress the distribution shifts back towards two and three as the whole book is re-planned around the wider spreads. All six cargoes are never matched at once.