CASE STUDIES / OPTIONALITY · ANALYSIS · JUL 2025
One month repriced the same option 45%.
The follow-up to the May study holds the portfolio fixed and updates only the forward curves. Four weeks of market evolution repriced the identical flexibility dramatically.
+45%
MEAN FLEX VALUE · JUNE VS MAY 2025 CURVES · SAME BOOK
Hold the book, move the curves.
01 · THE EXPERIMENT
Base and Asia-Flex portfolios are identical to the May study. The only change is the forward-curve date, 21 May against 23 June 2025, which isolates pure market repricing of the embedded option.
Same portfolios
Base book plus six optional DES-Long Asia cargoes, unchanged.
Only the curves move
Higher price levels and a friendlier JKM-TTF spread in June.
Same machinery
Three regimes, one thousand paths each, per-path re-optimisation.
Flex value, May against June.
02 · THE REPRICE
The whole value distribution moved right. In the regular regime the option gained 45%; under high volatility it reached 95 cents per MMBtu; and in the quiet regime it multiplied from nearly nothing.
May 2025 curves
June 2025 curves
LOW VOL
REGULAR
HIGH VOL
Where the uplift concentrates.
03 · THE PERCENT
The relative jump is largest where the May baseline was smallest: near-zero quiet-market value multiplied six times over. The portfolio itself also gained 44% at the curve on unhedged spread evolution.
+45%
REGULAR REGIME
+59%
HIGH VOLATILITY
+517%
LOW VOLATILITY
+44%
PORTFOLIO PROFIT AT FORWARD
Still invisible at the curve.
04 · AT FORWARD
Even in June, no optional Asia cargo is matched at forward prices: both books post the identical $271.5M. Everything the option gained lives in the simulation, exactly where concession decisions never look.
05 · THE VERDICT
The portfolio did not change. The market did, and the same flexibility gained 45% in one month.
CURVES 21 MAY VS 23 JUNE 2025 · PORTFOLIO UNCHANGED · 3 x 1,000 PATHS
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
