CASE STUDIES / OPTIONALITY · ANALYSIS · AUG 2025
Choosing the destination beats every other right.
Four flexibilities priced separately on a thirty-cargo DES book across European terminals. Regional diversion dominates everything else by a factor of two.
$2.06/MMBtu
MEAN VALUE OF REGIONAL DESTINATION FLEXIBILITY
Thirty cargoes, eight terminals.
01 · THE BOOK
Thirty DES-Long supply cargoes are matched against twenty-four DES-Short deliveries across eight European terminals plus spot, optimised end to end with certified optimality.
30
SUPPLY CARGOES · DES LONG
24
DELIVERIES · 8-DAY WINDOWS
$82.6M
COMBINED PROFIT
100%
CERTIFIED OPTIMALITY
Three flexibilities, three price tags.
02 · THE LEAGUE
Each right is valued in its own base-versus-flex comparison over one thousand simulations. The freedom to reroute a cargo to the best European market is worth more than cancellation and volume rights combined.
MEDIANS: 1.56 / 0.42 / 0.29 $/MMBTU
Germany, Italy, France by month.
03 · THE MAP
With regional freedom the engine picks the discharge country month by month. Germany anchors the book year-round, Italy is strongest early in the year and fades by December, France rises through autumn. The pattern, measured across one thousand simulations, is the flexibility premium made visible.
Germany
Italy
France
Cancellation and volume, quantified.
04 · THE RIGHTS
Selective cancellation lifts mean profit sixteen percent while touching only fifteen percent of cargoes; most value comes from the first one to three cancellations. Volume flexibility is a winter play, with December deliveries choosing minimum volume four times out of five.
05 · THE VERDICT
On a pure DES book, choosing the destination beats every other right: $2.06 against $0.96 for cancellation and $0.31 for volume.
FORWARD CURVES 29 JULY 2025 · EIGHT EUROPEAN TERMINALS · EACH RIGHT VALUED IN ISOLATION
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
