CASE STUDIES / PRICING · ANALYSIS · OCT 2025
Fleet modelling is worth $40M in negotiation.
Market prices rarely match a contract’s true value. Modelling a shipper’s fleet across 4,000 simulated Calcasieu Pass contracts shows how either side can claim the operational value the market cannot see.
$40M
WHAT A $0.50/MMBTU INFORMATION EDGE IS WORTH
The pie both sides split.
01 · THE FRAME
In an SPA the pie is the TTF-HH spread, divided into liquefier revenue, shipper profit and shipping cost. A contract that fits the fleet cuts the cost slice, so there is more pie to negotiate over.
TTF - HH = the pie
Liquefier revenue plus shipper profit plus shipper costs. The framework assumes an $8 spread.
Efficient contracts shrink the cost slice
Volume ranges and windows that fit the fleet reduce shipping cost directly.
The saved cost is negotiable value
Whoever quantifies it first can claim it in the adder.
Four thousand simulated contracts.
02 · THE SWEEP
A new Calcasieu Pass FOB Long is dropped into a simulated shipper’s existing book across five volume ranges and four pricing adders, each run over 200 Monte Carlo price sets, November 2025 to September 2027.
4,000
SIMULATED CONTRACTS
5 x 4
VOLUME RANGES x ADDERS
200
MC PRICE SETS EACH
$188.8M
SHIPPER PRIOR P&L
Wide volume ranges carry real value.
03 · THE RESULT
In every volume range the adder effect is steeper than minus one: raising the adder by a dollar costs the shipper more than a dollar, because the extra expense occasionally forces cancellations and lost revenue on their short contracts. The widest volume range is consistently the most valuable to ship.
The negotiation, worked through.
04 · THE PAYOFF
If the market expects a $4.40 adder but fleet modelling shows the contract is half a dollar more shipping-efficient than the market assumes, an informed liquefier can charge $4.90 and still leave the shipper at the profit the market predicted. That half dollar is free money for whoever saw it first.
05 · THE VERDICT
Whoever models the fleet knows the true value of the contract, and captures the share the market price leaves on the table.
SIMULATED LIQUEFIER AND SHIPPER · CALCASIEU PASS TERMINAL DATA PUBLIC · NOV 2025 - SEP 2027
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
