Screen-print style poster of an LNG carrier leaving Bahia Blanca under pricing curves

CASE STUDIES / PRICING · OCT 2​025

Comparing pricing formulas for Argentine LNG supply.

A proposed Bahia Blanca supply contract is added to three modelled buyer portfolios.

3 buyer models

BRENT PRICING GIVES THE HIGHEST SUPPLIER REVENUE IN EACH

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Represent three buyer types.

01 · PORTFOLIO

The study models a global major, a Gulf producer and a utility using public information and estimated portfolio sizes. It adds the same Argentine FOB opportunity to each.

GLOBAL MAJOR A · SHELL-SCALE

  • 157 FOB purchases across Australia, the Middle East, the US and Africa
  • 101 DES sales in Asia, Europe and the Americas · JKM, TTF and Brent
  • 22 x 174K vessels · spot access in five markets

GULF PRODUCER B · ADNOC-SCALE

  • 119 Brent-indexed FOB purchases from the Middle East
  • 114 DES sales: 82 Asia (JKM), 32 Europe (TTF)
  • 20 x 174K vessels · Brent-heavy by construction

EUROPEAN UTILITY C · ENBW-SCALE

  • 33 FOB purchases: 24 US (HH), 9 Middle East (Brent)
  • 36 TTF-indexed DES sales into Europe
  • 3 x 174K vessels · the smallest modelled portfolio

Modelled buyer portfolios based on public data. Each comparison adds an Argentine FOB supply contract loading at Bahia Blanca.

X-LNG route map of the global major's modelled book: Freeport, Grain, Nigeria LNG, Oman, Coral South, Futtsu, Taichung, Prelude
Major A: LNG routes across the Atlantic and Pacific.
X-LNG route map of the Gulf producer's modelled book: Calcasieu Pass, Dunkirk, Ruwais, Chhara, Zhoushan, Pengerang
Producer B: Middle Eastern supply serving Asian and European buyers.
X-LNG route map of the European utility's modelled book: Plaquemines, Stade FSRU, Ruwais
Utility C: US and Middle Eastern supply serving European demand.

Vary the formula and discount.

02 · PRICING FORMULAS

The model tests TTF, JKM and Brent indexation with discounts from $0.25 to $5.00/MMBtu. It recalculates the buyer’s schedule for each combination.

$0M$250M$500M$750M$1000M$1250M-$5-$4-$3-$2-$10DISCOUNT TO THE BENCHMARK · $/MMBTU · ARGENTINA LOADING REVENUE AFTER THE BUYER RE-OPTIMISESTTF $1,029M @ -$2.01JKM $959M @ -$2.90BRENT $1,149M @ -$0.44HUMPS = DISCRETE SCHEDULING WINDOWS,NOT NOISE: REAL CONSTRAINTS UNLOCKING
Supplier revenue at different discounts. Curves follow the study’s chart; peak values are reported results.

Compare total supplier revenue.

03 · SUPPLIER REVENUE

The displayed revenue curves reach their highest values with Brent indexation for each modelled buyer. Compare each formula within the same chart and buyer portfolio. Total revenue also depends on how many cargoes the buyer selects.

$0M$500M$1B$1.5B$2B1,0299591,149MAJOR A1,9281,9252,081PRODUCER B243240263UTILITY CSEVEN TIMES SMALLER, STILL BRENTTTFJKMBRENT · PEAK LOADING REVENUE $MEACH BAR = PEAK OF THE FULL DISCOUNT SWEEP FOR THAT PAIRING · CHART-PEAK FAMILY
Peak supplier revenue by buyer and pricing formula. The source chart and scenario table report slightly different values.

Check volume as well as revenue.

04 · REVENUE PER VOYAGE

Revenue per voyage produces a different comparison from total revenue. The global-major model reaches $30.1M per voyage. The discounts associated with the peak totals also differ between buyers.

$0M$10M$20M$30M27.125.830.1▲MAJOR A25.3▲22.322.6PRODUCER B23.426.2▲26.1UTILITY CTTFJKMBRENT · $M PER JOURNEY · ▲ = ROW OPTIMUMPEAK REVENUE DIVIDED BY JOURNEYS FROM BAHIA BLANCA · REMOVES VOLUME BIAS
Peak supplier revenue divided by the number of voyages. This is revenue per voyage, not profit.

Compare the discount and volume at each selected result.

05 · SELECTED DISCOUNTS

A larger discount can encourage the buyer to take more cargoes while reducing revenue per unit. The tables report selected scenario results; revenue per voyage and total supplier revenue measure different things.

Selected results from the source scenario table. Buyer profit remains positive at each selected discount.

ARGENTINA'S BEST PAIRING PER BUYER · BRENT THROUGHOUT

Major A · Brent at -$0.50$1,145M · $30.1M/JOURNEY
Producer B · Brent at -$2.50$2,010M · 89 JOURNEYS
Utility C · Brent at -$1.00$261M · $26.1M/JOURNEY
Same discount for all threeLEAVES REVENUE ON THE TABLE

06 · RESULT

The highest modelled supplier revenue uses Brent indexation for all three buyers.

The buyer portfolios are public-data approximations, not company forecasts or actual procurement plans. Revenue is not profit. Results depend on the assumed portfolio, capacity and pricing curves.

What this comparison shows.

07 · TAKEAWAYS

✓

Vary the formula and discount

The model tests TTF, JKM and Brent indexation with discounts from $0.25 to $5.00/MMBtu. It recalculates the buyer’s schedule for each combination.

✓

Compare the discount and volume at each selected result

A larger discount can encourage the buyer to take more cargoes while reducing revenue per unit. The tables report selected scenario results; revenue per voyage and total supplier revenue measure different things.

!

Scope of the result

The buyer portfolios are public-data approximations, not company forecasts or actual procurement plans. Revenue is not profit. Results depend on the assumed portfolio, capacity and pricing curves.

How the study was calculated.

08 · CALCULATION

1

Set up the comparison

The study models a global major, a Gulf producer and a utility using public information and estimated portfolio sizes. It adds the same Argentine FOB opportunity to each.

2

Calculate the alternatives

The displayed revenue curves reach their highest values with Brent indexation for each modelled buyer. Compare each formula within the same chart and buyer portfolio. Total revenue also depends on how many cargoes the buyer selects.

3

Review the result

The highest modelled supplier revenue uses Brent indexation for all three buyers.

Modelled results depend on the contracts, prices and operating assumptions used.