CASE STUDIES / PRICING · OCT 2025
Brent indexation maximises Argentina loading revenue.
One Argentina FOB-Long, dropped into three modelled counterparty portfolios, reveals each buyer’s revenue-maximising benchmark and discount for cargoes leaving Bahia Blanca.
$2.01BN
PEAK ARGENTINA LOADING REVENUE · LARGEST MODELLED BUYER, BRENT AT A -$2.50 DISCOUNT
Three counterparties, three books.
01 · THE SETUP
Each portfolio is approximated from public data and industry MTPA estimates, then a single Argentina FOB-Long is added under TTF, JKM or Brent indexation with discounts swept from -$0.25 to -$5.00 per MMBtu. For every step, X-LNG re-optimises the buyer's whole book and reports what Argentina actually loads.
GLOBAL MAJOR A · SHELL-SCALE
- 157 FOB-Long cargoes across Australia, the Middle East, the US and Africa
- 101 DES shorts in Asia, Europe and the Americas · JKM, TTF and Brent
- 22 x 174K vessels · spot access in five markets
GULF PRODUCER B · ADNOC-SCALE
- 119 Brent-indexed FOB-Long cargoes from the Middle East
- 114 DES shorts: 82 Asia (JKM), 32 Europe (TTF)
- 20 x 174K vessels · Brent-heavy by construction
EUROPEAN UTILITY C · ENBW-SCALE
- 33 FOB-Long cargoes: 24 US (HH), 9 Middle East (Brent)
- 36 TTF-indexed DES shorts into Europe
- 3 x 174K vessels · the smallest and steadiest book
PUBLIC-DATA APPROXIMATIONS, EXPLICITLY NOT COMPANY FIGURES · ONE ARGENTINA FOB-LONG ADDED PER RUN · JOURNEYS EX BAHIA BLANCA
Revenue curves with humps, not lines.
02 · THE CURVES
Argentina's loading revenue against the discount is no smooth elasticity curve. The humps are discrete optimisation opportunities: specific discount levels unlock superior scheduling windows, loading slots or routings in the buyer's book, so the true maximum can sit at a non-intuitive price point. Shown here: the global major's three benchmark curves.
Brent wins everywhere, scale decides the size.
03 · THE PEAKS
Sweeping the discount for every pairing, Brent delivers the highest peak revenue for all three counterparties. The scale gap is the story: the Gulf producer loads more than seven times the utility’s revenue, and still the ranking of benchmarks holds.
Per journey, the major beats the producer.
04 · THE LENS
Dividing peak revenue by journeys from Bahia Blanca removes the volume bias. The global major on Brent is the single most efficient pairing at $30.1M per voyage; the producer optimises on TTF, the utility on JKM. Efficiency and scale are different prizes, and Argentina can chase both with different buyers.
One seller, three different price tags.
05 · THE PLAYBOOK
The optimal discounts differ fivefold across buyers: the major peaks at a shallow -$0.50 because its book monetises oil-linked cargoes efficiently, the producer needs -$2.50 to unlock its ninety-journey scale, the utility sits at -$1.00. Pricing one formula for all three leaves revenue on the table; knowing each buyer's optimum is the negotiation edge.
GRID-TABLE FAMILY (DISCRETE SWEEP OPTIMA) · COUNTERPARTY PROFITS STAY POSITIVE AT EVERY OPTIMUM: WIN-WIN PRICING
06 · THE VERDICT
Brent wins for every counterparty:
the producer brings the scale, the major the efficiency, the utility the stability.
A new exporter does not need one price; it needs one price per buyer. Modelling each counterparty's whole book is what turns a discount guess into a revenue strategy.
What Bahia Blanca should charge, and whom.
07 · TAKEAWAYS
Brent wins for every buyer
All three counterparties peak on Brent indexation: $1.15B for the major, $2.08B for the producer, $263M for the utility (chart peaks). Oil-linked pricing travels best from Bahia Blanca.
Efficiency and scale are different prizes
The major earns the most per voyage, $30.1M against the producer’s $22.6M, while the producer loads nearly ninety journeys. Optimal discounts differ fivefold, from -$0.50 to -$2.50: one price for all three leaves revenue on the table.
The books are simulated, the humps are real
Portfolios are public-data approximations, explicitly not company figures. The multiple peaks in the revenue curves are not noise: they are discrete scheduling windows and routing constraints that make true optima sit at non-intuitive price points.
Modelled with X-LNG.
08 · THE TOOL
Your world goes in
Contracts, vessels, charter rates, prices, spot assumptions and constraints. The full book, not a slice.
One optimal plan comes out
Feasible, P&L-maximising and constraint-compliant, re-solved for every scenario in minutes.
Every number checks out
Each result can be recalculated by hand. Transparency your risk committee can audit.
CLOUD-BASED, ANY PORTFOLIO SIZE · BUILT AND ADVANCED DAILY BY ~25 MATHEMATICIANS, PHYSICISTS AND COMPUTER SCIENTISTS