CASE STUDIES / PORTFOLIO · ANALYSIS · MAY 2024
Rio Grande cargoes lift the whole book.
Adding a US Atlantic supply hub to a Gulf-heavy LNG book opens European demand and frees Middle East cargoes for premium Asian spot, modelled on public deal data.
+$225M
PORTFOLIO UPLIFT FROM 18 RIO GRANDE CARGOES
A Gulf-heavy twenty-vessel book.
01 · THE BOOK
The portfolio is modelled from public information on the May 2024 deal: an 11.7% equity stake in Rio Grande trains 1-3 plus a 20-year offtake from train 4, layered onto firm supply from Ruwais and Das Island.
PUBLIC DATA PLUS OWN ASSUMPTIONS · WINDOW NOV 2026 - NOV 2027
20
VESSELS · PANAMA AND SUEZ CAPABLE
231
GULF CARGOES · 9.5% BRENT
18
RIO GRANDE CARGOES · 9% BRENT
1.9
MTPA · TRAIN 4 OFFTAKE
Profit, with and without.
02 · THE UPLIFT
Eighteen Atlantic cargoes raise total FOB profit by roughly a quarter. The uplift comes from opening European demand directly and freeing Gulf volumes for the Asian spot market.
What the Atlantic hub changes.
03 · THE FLOWS
Seventeen of the eighteen new cargoes go straight to Brunsbuettel, replacing Middle East supply that previously crossed Suez. The freed Gulf cargoes almost double the Chinese spot programme. Nothing transits Panama in the optimum.
The JKM cliff remains.
04 · THE RISK
The book stays structurally long JKM: 118 of 205 firm demand cargoes are JKM-indexed. Under a stressed TTF-up, JKM-down world the Rio Grande cargoes cushion the fall but cannot close the exposure.
05 · THE VERDICT
Eighteen Atlantic cargoes lift profit by a quarter and open Europe, but they do not yet hedge a book that is structurally long JKM.
PUBLIC DEAL DATA PLUS OWN ASSUMPTIONS, MAY DIFFER FROM THE REAL PORTFOLIO · PRICES OF 5 MAY 2024
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