CASE STUDIES / PORTFOLIO · MAY 2024
Rio Grande cargoes lift the whole book.
Adding a US Atlantic supply hub to a Gulf-heavy LNG book opens European demand and frees Middle East cargoes for premium Asian spot, modelled on public deal data.
+$225M
PORTFOLIO UPLIFT FROM 18 RIO GRANDE CARGOES · 13 MONTHS
Does the Atlantic hub pay?
01 · THE QUESTION
In May 2024 ADNOC took an 11.7% equity stake in Rio Grande LNG trains 1 to 3 plus a 20-year offtake from train 4. The strategic case names four benefits. X-LNG puts a number on them: the whole book, re-optimised once without and once with the new supply.
MODELLED WITH X-LNG ON PUBLIC DEAL DATA PLUS OWN ASSUMPTIONS · RESULTS MAY DIFFER FROM THE REAL PORTFOLIO
Greater access to the Atlantic markets
A US supply hub serves European demand directly, without crossing Suez.
Reduced exposure to price volatility
A second basin spreads the book across TTF and JKM instead of one lane.
Reactivity to force-majeure events
Canal closures and outages can be rerouted around, not just absorbed.
Portfolio flexibility
More supply points mean more ways to rewire flows as markets move.
A Gulf-heavy twenty-vessel book.
02 · THE BOOK
20
VESSELS · PANAMA AND SUEZ CAPABLE
231
FIRM SUPPLY CARGOES FROM THE GULF
9.5%
BRENT SLOPE · RUWAIS AND DAS ISLAND
13
MONTHS · NOV 2026 TO NOV 2027
FIRM SUPPLY
- Ruwais, 142 cargoes, 3-day loading windows
- Das Island, 89 cargoes, 2-day loading windows
- 3.0 to 4.2M MMBtu per cargo
SPOT ACCESS
- Asia, priced at 90% JKM
- Europe, priced at 95% TTF
- Charter rate $46,500/day in both basins
PRICES OF 5 MAY 2024 · DELIVERY WINDOW NOV 2026 TO NOV 2027
What Rio Grande adds.
03 · THE ADDITION
18
RIO GRANDE CARGOES OVER THE WINDOW
9%
BRENT SLOPE · HALF A POINT BELOW THE GULF
2
DAYS AVERAGE LOADING WINDOW
Everything else stays untouched: same fleet, same firm demand, same prices. The only change is a new loading port on the US Gulf Coast, so any difference in the result is attributable to the Atlantic hub alone.
The engine then re-optimises the whole book, every cargo, ship and slot, once without and once with the new supply.
A quarter more profit.
04 · THE UPLIFT
Identical demand, identical fleet, only the Atlantic hub differs.
WITHOUT RIO GRANDE
$879.9M
TOTAL FOB PROFIT · 13 MONTHS
WITH RIO GRANDE
$1,105.1M
TOTAL FOB PROFIT · 13 MONTHS
EXACT ENGINE RESULTS $879,914,321 → $1,105,073,371 OVER THE 13-MONTH WINDOW
Where the cargoes go instead.
05 · THE FLOWS
The Atlantic hub serves Europe; the freed Gulf cargoes chase Asian spot.
Brunsbüttel switches from 21 Das Island + 11 Ruwais to 17 Rio Grande cargoes; the freed Gulf supply nearly doubles the Beihai spot programme. Flow changes apply to spot and optional positions only; all firm cargoes deliver in both runs.
06 · STRESS TEST I · FORCE-MAJEURE, RE-OPTIMISED UNDER A FULL CLOSURE
Shut the Panama Canal:
nothing moves.
The optimal plan never touches Panama. All Rio Grande supply ships east to Europe, so a closure leaves P&L and flows unchanged. Suez exposure shrinks too: the majority of European supply now arrives from the US instead of the Middle East.
TTF up, JKM down: the cushion holds.
07 · STRESS TEST II
Adverse price scenario: TTF +10%, JKM -10%, re-optimised.
Base prices
Uplift +$225.2M
TTF +10% · JKM -10%
Uplift shrinks to +$79.8M
THE BOOK STAYS STRUCTURALLY LONG JKM: MOST FIRM DEMAND PRICES OFF JKM · 18 ATLANTIC CARGOES CUSHION THAT EXPOSURE WITHOUT CLOSING IT
Straight from the engine.
08 · ENGINE OUTPUT
The cargo-flow Sankeys behind the delta: the same book, solved once without and once with the Atlantic hub.
What the deal buys, and what it does not.
09 · TAKEAWAYS
The Atlantic hub pays for itself
+$225M over 13 months: Europe served directly, freed Gulf cargoes almost double the Chinese spot programme.
Resilience improves
No Panama dependence in the optimum, and a smaller Suez footprint for European supply.
JKM exposure remains
Eighteen cargoes cushion a JKM slump but cannot hedge it. Next steps: more Atlantic supply (US, Nigeria) and non-JKM firm demand in the EU, UK or Brazil.
Modelled with X-LNG.
10 · THE TOOL
Your world goes in
Contracts, vessels, charter rates, prices, spot assumptions and constraints. The full book, not a slice.
One optimal plan comes out
Feasible, P&L-maximising and constraint-compliant, re-solved for every scenario in minutes.
Every number checks out
Each result can be recalculated by hand. Transparency your risk committee can audit.
CLOUD-BASED, ANY PORTFOLIO SIZE · BUILT AND ADVANCED DAILY BY ~25 MATHEMATICIANS, PHYSICISTS AND COMPUTER SCIENTISTS