CASE STUDIES / FLOWS · JUL 2025
Half of the 2023 LNG trade landed in East Asia.
Stripping bunkering, repositioning and sub-commercial cargoes from 2023 voyage data rebuilds global LNG trade cargo by cargo, and East Asia turns out to absorb half of it.
50.0%
OF 2023 LNG IMPORTS LANDED IN EAST ASIA
Two tests separate trade from noise.
01 · THE FILTER
Cargoes below 30,000 tonnes are excluded as non-commercial, and voyages below 40% vessel utilisation are flagged as repositioning, testing or domestic loops. What remains is the commercial market: most voyages sail near full.
2023 GLOBAL VOYAGE DATA · IGU CONVERSION FACTORS · NON-COMMERCIAL MOVEMENTS REMOVED
Every parameter stays customisable.
02 · THE MODEL
Volumes are standardised from tonnes to MMBtu with IGU conversion factors and clustered into thirteen regions, so the same machinery can simulate any what-if on future flows. The filtered dataset becomes the input of a global X-LNG run: commercial cargoes, demand and supply, per month per country.
30K T
COMMERCIAL THRESHOLD
3.6M
MMBTU PER STANDARD CARGO
13
REGIONAL CLUSTERS
2023
FULL VOYAGE DATASET
A three-way race at the top.
03 · EXPORTS
The US edges out Qatar and Australia in a near-tie that towers over everyone else. Russia holds nine percent despite sanctions, reoriented toward Asia.
East Asia takes half of everything.
04 · IMPORTS
China, Japan and South Korea alone account for over 55% of global imports; India emerges as the price-sensitive spot buyer. Producing regions import almost nothing.
REGIONS: EAST ASIA 50.0% · NW EUROPE 17.4% · SOUTH EUROPE AND MED 11.7%
05 · THE VERDICT
A three-way export race,
feeding an East Asia that takes half of everything.
Strip the noise and 2023 resolves into exactly that. India emerges as the price-sensitive spot buyer, European imports reflect the post-2022 pipeline substitution, and producing regions import almost nothing.
From dataset to what-if machine.
06 · THE WHAT-IF
The rebuilt trade is not a report, it is an input: the same machinery re-optimises the global fleet under any assumption you change.
Supply disruption scenarios
Remove any source and re-optimise the global fleet: geopolitical and operational constraints, simulated.
Every assumption adjustable
Price indexation, shipping constraints and terminal parameters, tailored to the scenario.
Stress tested at +20% demand
Fleet utilisation, terminal congestion and spot exposure under a high-stress demand shock.
Rapid recalculation
Global flows re-solved when assumptions change, for deep iterative analysis.
Straight from the engine.
07 · ENGINE OUTPUT
The optimised 2023 flows from the global run, under real market prices.
What the filtered trade actually says.
08 · TAKEAWAYS
A three-way race feeds the market
The US (24.9%), Qatar (23.2%) and Australia (21.9%) tower over everyone else; Russia holds nine percent despite sanctions, reoriented toward Asia.
East Asia takes half of everything
50.0% of global imports; China, Japan and South Korea alone account for over 55%, and India emerges as the price-sensitive spot buyer.
Raw voyage data misleads
Cargoes below 30,000 tonnes and 230 sub-40%-utilisation voyages are bunkering, repositioning or domestic loops; forecasts built on unfiltered data inherit that noise.
Modelled with X-LNG.
09 · THE TOOL
Your world goes in
Contracts, vessels, charter rates, prices, spot assumptions and constraints. The full book, not a slice.
One optimal plan comes out
Feasible, P&L-maximising and constraint-compliant, re-solved for every scenario in minutes.
Every number checks out
Each result can be recalculated by hand. Transparency your risk committee can audit.
CLOUD-BASED, ANY PORTFOLIO SIZE · BUILT AND ADVANCED DAILY BY ~25 MATHEMATICIANS, PHYSICISTS AND COMPUTER SCIENTISTS