CASE STUDIES / FLOWS · JUL 2025
Shutting Panama cuts the Futtsu margin 37%.
A prolonged canal shutdown reroutes US Gulf LNG via Suez and collapses the richest Asian arbitrage, while the European trade barely notices.
-37%
THE FUTTSU MARGIN UNDER A CANAL SHUTDOWN · $4.89 TO $3.08
A global 2024 portfolio.
01 · THE BOOK
The base case runs a full global book through the engine: 45 vessels, 867 journeys, split almost evenly between laden and ballast legs. All per-MMBtu figures relate to laden voyages.
GLOBAL 2024 PORTFOLIO · LADEN-ONLY $/MMBTU · JKM AND TTF SWEPT -20% TO +20%
45
VESSELS · 174K CLASS
867
TOTAL JOURNEYS
442
LADEN VOYAGES
15
USGC TO ASIA VIA PANAMA
Where the canal cargoes go.
02 · THE ROUTE
Fifteen laden voyages transit the canal from Sabine Pass to four Asian ports, heavily concentrated on Japan. This small route is the portfolio's single most profitable trade at $3.57 per MMBtu.
Canal shut: Asia repriced, Europe flat.
03 · THE SHOCK
Under shutdown, US-Asia cargoes detour via Suez with a $100,000 fee. Only Futtsu stays economic; the other Asian routes are dropped entirely, and Europe becomes the default outlet.
CANAL OPEN
$4.89
SABINE PASS TO FUTTSU · MARGIN PER MMBTU
CANAL SHUT
$3.08
SAME CARGO VIA SUEZ · MARGIN PER MMBTU
DROPPED
SAKAI, TIANJIN AND ZHANGZHOU UNDER SHUTDOWN
$2.45
SABINE TO EUROPE AVERAGE PER MMBTU · STABLE
$100K
SUEZ DETOUR FEE PER TRANSIT
04 · THE VERDICT
The canal is the profit engine of the US-Asia trade:
Europe is the hedge.
Sabine to Europe holds at $2.45 per MMBtu regardless of the canal. When Panama shuts, the richest Asian arbitrage collapses to a 37% lower margin and Europe quietly absorbs the rerouted supply.
A pure JKM-TTF arbitrage.
05 · SENSITIVITY
Across 25 price combinations, canal value is a spread trade: it peaks when JKM rallies against a falling TTF and turns negative in the mirror case.
CANAL VALUE PER MMBTU · RE-OPTIMISED PER SCENARIO
FOR ASIAN IMPORTS THE INDIFFERENCE POINT SITS AT JKM +10%
Straight from the engine.
06 · ENGINE OUTPUT
The optimised routes from the run: the full 45-vessel book, and the canal trade the study prices.
What the canal is worth, and to whom.
07 · TAKEAWAYS
The canal is the profit engine of the US-Asia trade
Fifteen Sabine Pass voyages transit Panama to four Asian ports, heavily concentrated on Japan. This small route is the portfolio’s single most profitable trade at $3.57 per MMBtu.
Europe is the hedge
Sabine to Europe averages $2.45 per MMBtu, holds stable under the shutdown and becomes the default outlet for the rerouted cargoes.
Canal value is a spread trade
It peaks when JKM rallies against a falling TTF, turns negative in the mirror case, and for Asian imports the indifference point sits at JKM plus ten percent.
Modelled with X-LNG.
08 · THE TOOL
Your world goes in
Contracts, vessels, charter rates, prices, spot assumptions and constraints. The full book, not a slice.
One optimal plan comes out
Feasible, P&L-maximising and constraint-compliant, re-solved for every scenario in minutes.
Every number checks out
Each result can be recalculated by hand. Transparency your risk committee can audit.
CLOUD-BASED, ANY PORTFOLIO SIZE · BUILT AND ADVANCED DAILY BY ~25 MATHEMATICIANS, PHYSICISTS AND COMPUTER SCIENTISTS