CASE STUDIES / FLOWS · ANALYSIS · JUL 2025
Shutting Panama cuts the Futtsu margin 37%.
A prolonged canal shutdown reroutes US Gulf LNG via Suez and collapses the richest Asian arbitrage, while the European trade barely notices.
-37%
THE FUTTSU MARGIN UNDER A CANAL SHUTDOWN, $4.89 TO $3.08
A global 2024 portfolio.
01 · THE BOOK
The base case runs a full global book through the engine: 45 vessels, 867 journeys, split almost evenly between laden and ballast legs. All per-MMBtu figures relate to laden voyages.
45
VESSELS · 174K CLASS
867
TOTAL JOURNEYS
442
LADEN VOYAGES
15
USGC-ASIA VIA PANAMA
Where the canal cargoes go.
02 · THE ROUTE
Fifteen laden voyages transit the canal from Sabine Pass to four Asian ports, heavily concentrated on Japan. This small route is the portfolio’s single most profitable trade at $3.57 per MMBtu.
Canal shut: Asia repriced, Europe flat.
03 · THE SHOCK
Under shutdown, US-Asia cargoes detour via Suez with a $100,000 fee. Only Futtsu stays economic, at a 37% lower margin; the other Asian routes are dropped entirely. Europe is untouched and becomes the default outlet.
A pure JKM-TTF arbitrage.
04 · SENSITIVITY
Across 25 price combinations, canal value is a spread trade. It peaks when JKM rallies against a falling TTF, turns negative in the mirror case, and for Asian imports the indifference point sits at JKM plus ten percent.
05 · THE VERDICT
The canal is the profit engine of the US-Asia trade, and Europe is the hedge that holds at $2.45 regardless.
GLOBAL 2024 PORTFOLIO · LADEN-ONLY $/MMBTU · JKM AND TTF SWEPT -20% TO +20%
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
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