CASE STUDIES / FLOWS · JUL 2025
How a Panama closure changes LNG routes and margins.
The study closes the Panama Canal in a global LNG model and recalculates the shipping plan.
-37%
SABINE PASS TO FUTTSU MARGIN · $4.89 TO $3.08/MMBTU
The reference portfolio.
01 · PORTFOLIO
The base model uses 45 vessels and 867 laden and ballast journeys. Fifteen laden voyages carry Sabine Pass cargoes through Panama to four Asian ports.
GLOBAL 2024 PORTFOLIO · LADEN-ONLY $/MMBTU · JKM AND TTF SWEPT -20% TO +20%
45
VESSELS · 174K CLASS
867
TOTAL JOURNEYS
442
LADEN VOYAGES
15
USGC TO ASIA VIA PANAMA
Which voyages use Panama in the reference plan?
02 · REFERENCE ROUTE
Fifteen laden Sabine Pass voyages use Panama to reach four Asian destinations. The chart compares their margins with European deliveries before the closure.
Recalculate with Panama unavailable.
03 · CANAL CLOSURE
The model can use alternative routes and destinations. Under the closure assumptions, US cargoes serving Asia use Suez, including the modelled $100,000 transit fee.
CANAL OPEN
$4.89
SABINE PASS TO FUTTSU · MARGIN PER MMBTU
CANAL SHUT
$3.08
SAME CARGO VIA SUEZ · MARGIN PER MMBTU
DROPPED
SAKAI, TIANJIN AND ZHANGZHOU UNDER SHUTDOWN
$2.45
SABINE TO EUROPE AVERAGE PER MMBTU · STABLE
$100K
SUEZ DETOUR FEE PER TRANSIT
04 · RESULT
The modelled Sabine Pass to Futtsu margin falls 37%, from $4.89 to $3.08/MMBtu.
The 37% decline applies to the Futtsu route. It is not the average margin decline for every Asian destination. Results use the study’s prices, fees and route assumptions.
Canal value depends on the price spread.
05 · SENSITIVITY
The study tests 25 JKM and TTF price combinations. Panama access is more valuable when Asian prices rise relative to European prices.
CANAL VALUE PER MMBTU · RE-OPTIMISED PER SCENARIO
In the tested Asian import comparison, both canal scenarios give the same margin at JKM +10%.
Inspect the routes before and after closure.
06 · X-LNG RESULTS
The X-LNG views show how the model changes cargo routes when Panama is unavailable. European and Asian sales remain subject to the same contract assumptions.
What this comparison shows.
07 · TAKEAWAYS
Which voyages use Panama in the reference plan?
Fifteen laden Sabine Pass voyages use Panama to reach four Asian destinations. The chart compares their margins with European deliveries before the closure.
Inspect the routes before and after closure
The X-LNG views show how the model changes cargo routes when Panama is unavailable. European and Asian sales remain subject to the same contract assumptions.
Scope of the result
The 37% decline applies to the Futtsu route. It is not the average margin decline for every Asian destination. Results use the study’s prices, fees and route assumptions.
How the study was calculated.
08 · CALCULATION
Set up the comparison
The base model uses 45 vessels and 867 laden and ballast journeys. Fifteen laden voyages carry Sabine Pass cargoes through Panama to four Asian ports.
Calculate the alternatives
The model can use alternative routes and destinations. Under the closure assumptions, US cargoes serving Asia use Suez, including the modelled $100,000 transit fee.
Review the result
The modelled Sabine Pass to Futtsu margin falls 37%, from $4.89 to $3.08/MMBtu.
Modelled results depend on the contracts, prices and operating assumptions used.