CASE STUDIES / RISK · ANALYSIS · NOV 2024
Mexican supply is worth $83M when canals close.
A resilience test comparing a US-Gulf-only book against one diversified with Mexican Pacific supply, under open and closed Suez and Panama canals.
+$83.1M
THE MEXICO ADVANTAGE WITH SUEZ AND PANAMA CLOSED
Two books, same demand.
01 · THE SETUP
Both portfolios serve Gate and Futtsu with 80 cargoes on seven 174k vessels through 2025. One sources everything from Sabine Pass; the other swaps twenty cargoes to Costa Azul on Mexico’s Pacific coast.
P&L, canals open and closed.
02 · THE STRESS
The diversified book earns more in every state, and loses far less when both canals shut, because Costa Azul reaches Asia without touching Panama.
Canals open
Canals closed
US GULF ONLY
US GULF + MEXICO
The drawdown gap.
03 · RESILIENCE
A double canal closure costs the US-only book over twenty million dollars; the diversified book gives up twelve. And the Mexican cargoes add value before any crisis: the uplift exists in the open state too.
-$20.4M
US-ONLY CLOSURE HIT
-$12.2M
DIVERSIFIED CLOSURE HIT
+$74.8M
MEXICO UPLIFT · OPEN
+$83.1M
MEXICO UPLIFT · CLOSED
Asia stays served through the Pacific.
04 · THE FLOWS
When the canals close, the US-only book retreats to Europe almost entirely. The diversified book keeps twenty cargoes flowing to Futtsu, all of them from Costa Azul, while Sabine Pass backfills Europe.
05 · THE VERDICT
Pacific supply raises P&L in every state and cuts a double canal closure hit from $20M to $12M.
2025 PROGRAMME · CANALS MODELLED FULLY OPEN OR FULLY CLOSED · FORWARD CURVES HH/TTF/JKM
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
