CASE STUDIES / CHARTERING · AUG 2024
Break-even charter rate hits $93,750/day in Q4.
A full-year 2025 study asking whether a third vessel is worth chartering, in which 90-day window, and up to what rate, with the break-even solved directly.
$93,750
PER DAY · THE BREAK-EVEN CHARTER RATE IN THE Q4 WINDOW
Twenty-two cargoes, three questions.
01 · THE SETUP
A year of US Gulf supply, spot-deliverable to Gate or Futtsu on two 174K vessels. The study asks whether a third TC-in vessel pays, in which quarter, and at what maximum rate.
THE BASE BOOK
- 22 cargoes at Sabine Pass, 115% HH + $3.5 tolling
- Spot demand: Gate at 100% TTF, Futtsu at 100% JKM
- Base case with two vessels: $349.0M, 20 Gate / 2 Futtsu
THE THREE QUESTIONS
- Is a third TC-in vessel worth chartering at all?
- In which 90-day window of 2025?
- Up to what maximum rate? Modelled at $48,500 per day
FULL YEAR 2025 · 90-DAY CHARTER WINDOWS · FORWARD CURVES HH, TTF AND JKM · OPTIMISER MAY LEAVE THE VESSEL UNUSED
The quarter decides the vessel.
02 · THE ANSWER
At $48,500 a day the third ship is used and profitable in Q1, Q3 and Q4, pushing cargoes toward Futtsu. In Q2 the spread compresses and the optimiser leaves it idle at base P&L.
EXACT ENGINE RESULTS: BASE $348,997,639 · Q1 $356,902,027 · Q3 $355,807,364 · Q4 $361,920,945 · Q2 EQUALS THE BASE CASE
Winter spread, summer squeeze.
03 · THE DRIVER
The JKM-TTF spread is widest in the winter quarters and compresses through Q2, mapping one to one onto when the extra vessel pays. Seasonality in the spread is the whole trade.
AVERAGES FROM THE 2025 FORWARD CURVES · MONTHLY EXTREMES $1.45 IN JANUARY, $0.35 IN APRIL
The break-even, solved directly.
04 · THE BREAK-EVEN
Per-cargo P&L by loading date shows Asian deliveries out-earning Gate through the wide-spread windows: the November loading carries a premium of about four million dollars (Gate $16.5M against Futtsu $20.5M). That premium is why the break-even rate climbs so far above the modelled rate.
$48,500
PER DAY · THE MODELLED SPARK-30-LEVEL RATE
+$12.9M
Q4 UPLIFT AT THAT RATE
$93,750
PER DAY · THE Q4 BREAK-EVEN RATE
~$4M
FUTTSU PREMIUM ON THE NOVEMBER LOADING
05 · THE VERDICT
The third vessel earns its keep in Q1, Q3 and Q4:
in the peak window it breaks even at $93,750 a day.
The quarter decides the vessel, the spread decides the quarter, and the break-even is not a guess: it is solved directly against the whole book.
Straight from the engine.
06 · ENGINE OUTPUT
The Q4 run as the engine reports it: cargo flows, the per-cargo Futtsu premium, and the seasonality that drives it.
Which window funds a third ship, and up to what rate.
07 · TAKEAWAYS
Seasonality is the trade
Q1, Q3 and Q4 fund the vessel and push cargoes toward Futtsu; in Q2 the spread compresses and the optimiser leaves it idle at base P&L.
Q4 is the peak window
+$12.9M at the modelled rate, and the break-even sits at $93,750 a day, far above the Spark 30 level.
The premium lives per cargo
Asian deliveries out-earn Gate only through the wide-spread windows; the November loading alone carries about $4M of it (Gate $16.5M against Futtsu $20.5M).
Modelled with X-LNG.
08 · THE TOOL
Your world goes in
Contracts, vessels, charter rates, prices, spot assumptions and constraints. The full book, not a slice.
One optimal plan comes out
Feasible, P&L-maximising and constraint-compliant, re-solved for every scenario in minutes.
Every number checks out
Each result can be recalculated by hand. Transparency your risk committee can audit.
CLOUD-BASED, ANY PORTFOLIO SIZE · BUILT AND ADVANCED DAILY BY ~25 MATHEMATICIANS, PHYSICISTS AND COMPUTER SCIENTISTS