CASE STUDIES / CHARTERING · ANALYSIS · AUG 2024
Break-even charter rate hits $93,750/day in Q4.
A full-year 2025 study asking whether a third vessel is worth chartering, in which 90-day window, and up to what rate, with the break-even solved directly.
$93,750/day
THE BREAK-EVEN CHARTER RATE IN THE Q4 WINDOW
Twenty-two cargoes, three questions.
01 · THE SETUP
A year of US Gulf supply, spot-deliverable to Gate or Futtsu on two 174k vessels. The study asks whether a third TC-in vessel pays, in which quarter, and at what maximum rate.
The quarter decides the vessel.
02 · THE ANSWER
At $48,500 a day the third ship is used and profitable in Q1, Q3 and Q4, pushing cargoes toward Futtsu. In Q2 the spread compresses and the optimiser leaves it idle at base P&L.
Winter spread, summer squeeze.
03 · THE DRIVER
The JKM-TTF spread is widest in the winter quarters and compresses through Q2, mapping one to one onto when the extra vessel pays. Seasonality in the spread is the whole trade.
TTF
JKM
The Futtsu premium per cargo.
04 · Q4 LENS
Per-cargo P&L by loading date shows Asian deliveries out-earning Gate through the wide-spread windows. The November loading carries a premium of about four million dollars, which is why the break-even rate climbs so high.
PER-CARGO VALUES READ FROM THE Q4 CHART, ROUNDED
05 · THE VERDICT
The third vessel earns its keep in Q1, Q3 and Q4. In the peak window it still breaks even at $93,750 a day.
FULL YEAR 2025 · 90-DAY CHARTER WINDOWS · OPTIMISER MAY LEAVE THE VESSEL UNUSED
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
