CASE STUDIES / CHARTERING · AUG 2024
Finding a charter period and maximum hire rate.
A full-year LNG model tests a third vessel in different 90-day windows.
$93,750/day
Q4 BREAK-EVEN HIRE RATE · STUDY PRICE CURVES
Compare quarterly charter windows.
01 · PORTFOLIO
The base portfolio uses two 174,000 m³ vessels for US Gulf supply delivered to Gate or Futtsu. Each scenario adds a third vessel for a 90-day period.
REFERENCE PORTFOLIO
- 22 cargoes at Sabine Pass, 115% HH + $3.5 tolling
- Spot demand: Gate at 100% TTF, Futtsu at 100% JKM
- Base case with two vessels: $349.0M, 20 Gate / 2 Futtsu
THE THREE QUESTIONS
- Is a third TC-in vessel worth chartering at all?
- In which 90-day window of 2025?
- Up to what maximum rate? Modelled at $48,500 per day
FULL YEAR 2025 · 90-DAY CHARTER WINDOWS · FORWARD CURVES HH, TTF AND JKM · OPTIMISER MAY LEAVE THE VESSEL UNUSED
Test the quoted rate.
02 · RESULTS
At $48,500/day, the additional vessel is used in Q1, Q3 and Q4. In Q2, the price spread does not support using it, and portfolio profit stays at the base result.
Modelled profit: BASE $348,997,639 · Q1 $356,902,027 · Q3 $355,807,364 · Q4 $361,920,945 · Q2 EQUALS THE BASE CASE
Identify the cargoes creating the value.
03 · PRICE EFFECT
Asian delivery premiums are largest in the relevant winter windows. For the November loading, Futtsu earns about $20.5M against $16.5M at Gate.
AVERAGES FROM THE 2025 FORWARD CURVES · MONTHLY EXTREMES $1.45 IN JANUARY, $0.35 IN APRIL
Find the rate supported by the portfolio.
04 · MAXIMUM HIRE RATE
The model varies the charter cost to find the break-even rate. Q4 supports $93,750/day under the study assumptions.
$48,500
PER DAY · THE MODELLED SPARK-30-LEVEL RATE
+$12.9M
Q4 UPLIFT AT THAT RATE
$93,750
PER DAY · THE Q4 BREAK-EVEN RATE
~$4M
FUTTSU PREMIUM ON THE NOVEMBER LOADING
05 · RESULT
Q4 adds $12.9M at the modelled rate. The calculated Q4 break-even rate is $93,750/day.
The break-even rate belongs to the modelled portfolio and price curves. It changes when the cargo programme, vessel or market assumptions change.
Inspect the quarterly schedules.
06 · X-LNG RESULTS
The modelled vessel schedules identify the voyages that use the additional charter. The break-even rate applies to this cargo programme and these price curves.
What this comparison shows.
07 · TAKEAWAYS
Test the quoted rate
At $48,500/day, the additional vessel is used in Q1, Q3 and Q4. In Q2, the price spread does not support using it, and portfolio profit stays at the base result.
Inspect the quarterly schedules
The modelled vessel schedules identify the voyages that use the additional charter. The break-even rate applies to this cargo programme and these price curves.
Scope of the result
The break-even rate belongs to the modelled portfolio and price curves. It changes when the cargo programme, vessel or market assumptions change.
How the study was calculated.
08 · CALCULATION
Set up the comparison
The base portfolio uses two 174,000 m³ vessels for US Gulf supply delivered to Gate or Futtsu. Each scenario adds a third vessel for a 90-day period.
Calculate the alternatives
Asian delivery premiums are largest in the relevant winter windows. For the November loading, Futtsu earns about $20.5M against $16.5M at Gate.
Review the result
Q4 adds $12.9M at the modelled rate. The calculated Q4 break-even rate is $93,750/day.
Modelled results depend on the contracts, prices and operating assumptions used.