CASE STUDIES / CHARTERING · ANALYSIS · OCT 2024
November pays the third vessel +$4.1M.
Six US Gulf cargoes, two ships, and a broker offering a third at the Spark 30 rate. Whether to take it comes down entirely to the monthly JKM-TTF spread.
+$4.1M
WHAT THE THIRD VESSEL EARNS IN NOVEMBER 2024
Six cargoes, two ships, one offer.
01 · THE QUESTION
The base book loads six Q4 cargoes at Sabine Pass for spot delivery to Gate or Futtsu on two 174k vessels. The question: does a TC-in third vessel at $64,000 a day capture the Europe-Asia spread?
P&L by charter month.
02 · THE ANSWER
The optimiser only picks the vessel up when it pays. In October the spread is too thin, so it stays idle and P&L equals the base case. November and December fund it comfortably.
The spread that decides it.
03 · THE DRIVER
TTF and JKM forwards for October through January. A ship taken in one month discharges into the next, so the spread at discharge decides: it is thinnest in November and widens through December and January, which is when the extra ship pays.
TTF
JKM
The cargo mix flips to Futtsu.
04 · THE FLOWS
With the third ship in play, the book swings from a Europe-weighted split to an Asia-weighted one, monetising the spread the extra shipping length creates.
05 · THE VERDICT
In October the third ship adds nothing and costs nothing. In November and December, the spread pays for it.
Q4 2024 · SPOT AT 100% TTF / 100% JKM · OPTIMISER FREE TO LEAVE THE VESSEL UNUSED
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
