CASE STUDIES / CHARTERING · OCT 2024
When a third vessel pays for a Q4 LNG programme.
The study tests whether an additional vessel improves a six-cargo US Gulf programme.
+$4.1M
NOVEMBER CHARTER · AFTER MODELLED HIRE COST
Start with six cargoes and two vessels.
01 · COMPARISON
The base plan loads at Sabine Pass and can deliver to Gate or Futtsu. The study adds a third 174,000 m³ vessel at $64,000/day.
REFERENCE PORTFOLIO
- 6 Q4 cargoes at Sabine Pass, 115% HH + $3.5 tolling
- Spot demand: Gate at 100% TTF, Futtsu at 100% JKM
- Two 174K vessels, forward curves HH, TTF and JKM
THE OFFER
- A broker offers a third 174K vessel, TC-in
- At the Spark 30 rate: $64,000 per day
- The optimiser stays free to leave it unused
Compare the charter months.
02 · RESULTS
The extra vessel remains unused in the October test. In November and December, the model uses it to send more cargoes to Asia.
Modelled profit: BASE $130,560,786 · NOVEMBER $134,696,454 · DECEMBER $133,229,865 · OCTOBER EQUALS THE BASE CASE
Use prices for the discharge month.
03 · PRICE EFFECT
A cargo loaded in one month may discharge in the next. The relevant JKM-TTF spread is therefore the spread when the cargo can be delivered.
FORWARDS OCT 24 TO JAN 25 · TTF 12.90 / 12.65 / 12.80 / 12.90 · JKM 14.05 / 13.20 / 13.85 / 14.15 $/MMBTU
04 · RESULT
At the modelled $64,000/day rate, the extra vessel adds value in November and December.
The charter rate and price curves are historical study inputs. They are not a current charter quotation.
The third vessel allows more Asian deliveries.
05 · CARGO ROUTES
The model compares Gate and Futtsu for each loading. Extra vessel capacity helps only when the Asian delivery premium covers the longer voyage and charter cost.
Base and October: four Gate, two Futtsu
The model declines the optional October charter. The two existing vessels cover the reference delivery plan.
November: one Gate, five Futtsu
The additional charter supports three more Asian deliveries than the reference plan. Profit rises by $4.1M after hire costs.
December: two Gate, four Futtsu
The plan sends two more cargoes to Asia than the reference. Profit rises by $2.7M after hire costs.
Inspect the additional vessel in the schedule.
06 · X-LNG RESULTS
The X-LNG screens show the vessel and cargo assignments behind the monthly results. The quoted charter rate belongs to this historical study.
What this comparison shows.
07 · TAKEAWAYS
Compare the charter months
The extra vessel remains unused in the October test. In November and December, the model uses it to send more cargoes to Asia.
Inspect the additional vessel in the schedule
The X-LNG screens show the vessel and cargo assignments behind the monthly results. The quoted charter rate belongs to this historical study.
Scope of the result
The charter rate and price curves are historical study inputs. They are not a current charter quotation.
How the study was calculated.
08 · CALCULATION
Set up the comparison
The base plan loads at Sabine Pass and can deliver to Gate or Futtsu. The study adds a third 174,000 m³ vessel at $64,000/day.
Calculate the alternatives
A cargo loaded in one month may discharge in the next. The relevant JKM-TTF spread is therefore the spread when the cargo can be delivered.
Review the result
At the modelled $64,000/day rate, the extra vessel adds value in November and December.
Modelled results depend on the contracts, prices and operating assumptions used.