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CASE STUDIES / PRICING · JUL 2​026

Pricing a Port Qasim tender while covering existing sales.

The study adds a Pakistan delivery opportunity to a committed Oman-to-Asia programme and tests ten tender prices.

+$1.59M

ADDITIONAL PORTFOLIO PROFIT · TENDER PRICE $20/MMBTU

View as slides (PDF) →

Start with six committed deliveries.

01 · PORTFOLIO

Six Qalhat liftings cover six firm sales at Tianjin and Futtsu using two vessels. The base model earns $167.93M.

FOB PURCHASES · OMAN LNG (QALHAT)

  • 6 liftings · Oct 2​026 to Jan 2​027
  • 13% × Brent
  • 3,850,000 MMBtu each, min = max

DES SALES · TIANJIN

  • 3 firm sales
  • JKM − 0.15
  • 15.3-day voyage from Qalhat

DES SALES · FUTTSU

  • 3 firm sales
  • JKM + 0.05
  • 15.6-day voyage from Qalhat

Reference plan: six laden and four ballast voyages. Profit: $167.93M, or $7.36/MMBtu.

Add the tender and replacement supply.

02 · TENDER TERMS

The Port Qasim tender requires delivery on 11 to 13 November 2​026. Replacement cargo offers at the Asian terminals let the model cover an existing sale if an Oman cargo diverts.

THE TENDER · DES PORT QASIM

  • 1 cargo · 11 to 13 Nov 2​026
  • Fixed tender prices tested from $17.00 to $22.00
  • A 1.5-day leg from Qalhat against a two-week voyage to Asia
  • Delivers 3,808,117 MMBtu at Qasim

REPLACEMENT SUPPLY OFFERS

  • DES purchases at Tianjin at JKM + 0.30
  • DES purchases at Futtsu at JKM + 0.35
  • Delivery windows match the existing sales
  • The model uses these offers to cover the sale displaced by the diversion
  • These runs select replacement supply at Tianjin, not Futtsu

Study forward prices · NOV-2​6 BRENT $84.58 · JKM $19.89 · TENDER QUOTED FLAT, NOT INDEXED

Compare keeping the plan with diverting one cargo.

03 · HOW IT WORKS

The reference keeps the Oman-to-Asia deliveries. The alternative sends OMN-03 to Port Qasim and uses replacement supply at Tianjin to meet the existing sale.

TESTED $17 TO $19.71 · DECLINEDFOB OmancommittedTender QasimdeclinedDES Tianjinsale fulfilledown vesselto TianjinTESTED $19.7128 TO $22 · DIVERTEDFOB OmancommittedTender Qasim1.5-day legSpot purchaseJKM + 0.30DES Tianjinsale coveredvessel divertsreplacement purchase
Oman cargo OMN-03 diverts to Port Qasim. A replacement purchase covers the existing Tianjin sale.

Compare ten separately calculated tender prices.

04 · TENDER PRICES

The tender is declined at $19.71/MMBtu. The next tested price, $19.7128, selects the diversion and adds $492,247. This is an observed selection change, not a demonstrated zero-profit threshold.

$17.00+$0
$18.00+$0
$19.00+$0
$19.50+$0
$19.71+$0
$19.7128 · SELECTED+$0.49M
$20.00+$1.59M
$20.50+$3.49M
$21.00+$5.39M
$22.00+$9.20M

PROFIT VS THE BASE PLAN · Each row is a separately calculated plan · $167.93M UNCHANGED ON ALL FIVE DECLINED RUNS

Profit rises with tender revenue once the cargo is selected.

05 · ACCEPTED PRICES

At $20/MMBtu the additional profit is $1.59M; at $22 it is $9.20M. The delivered volume is 3,808,117 MMBtu, so each additional dollar per MMBtu adds about $3.81M.

0.00.51.01.52.02.5DECLINED RUNStender declined · P&L = baseACCEPTED RUNSone cargo diverts,Tianjin sale coveredFIRST ACCEPTED RUN$19.7128/MMBtu171819202122PAKISTAN TENDER PRICE · FLAT $/MMBTU, DES PORT QASIM
Once the tender is accepted, each $1/MMBtu price increase adds about $3.81M to profit.

$19.7128

FIRST ACCEPTED TEST PRICE · $/MMBTU

$3.81M

ADDED PER $1.00 · THE DELIVERED VOLUME

+$1.59M

OPTION VALUE AT $20.00

10

SEPARATELY CALCULATED PRICES

Include the cost of covering the existing sale.

06 · REVENUE AND COSTS

At the $19.7128 run, Qasim revenue is about $75.07M. Displaced Tianjin revenue is about $73.04M, replacement supply costs about $1.57M, and the fleet change adds $37,000. The reported net gain is $492,247.

020406075+$75.07M-$73.04M-$1.57M+$37k+$492kQASIM SALEnew cargoTIANJINforegoneREPLACEMENTpaperFLEETre-optimisedNET ATACCEPTED PRICES
Change versus the original plan at a $19.7128/MMBtu tender price. Replacement supply costs $1.57M.

07 · RESULT

At $20.00/MMBtu, the tender adds $1.59M to modelled portfolio profit.

Ten discrete tender prices were tested using the study’s dated forward curves. The accepted $19.7128 run has positive incremental profit. The runs do not establish an exact zero-profit bid price.

What this comparison shows.

08 · TAKEAWAYS

✓

Add the tender and replacement supply

The Port Qasim tender requires delivery on 11 to 13 November 2​026. Replacement cargo offers at the Asian terminals let the model cover an existing sale if an Oman cargo diverts.

✓

Include the cost of covering the existing sale

At the $19.7128 run, Qasim revenue is about $75.07M. Displaced Tianjin revenue is about $73.04M, replacement supply costs about $1.57M, and the fleet change adds $37,000. The reported net gain is $492,247.

!

Scope of the result

Ten discrete tender prices were tested using the study’s dated forward curves. The accepted $19.7128 run has positive incremental profit. The runs do not establish an exact zero-profit bid price.

How the study was calculated.

09 · CALCULATION

1

Set up the comparison

Six Qalhat liftings cover six firm sales at Tianjin and Futtsu using two vessels. The base model earns $167.93M.

2

Calculate the alternatives

The reference keeps the Oman-to-Asia deliveries. The alternative sends OMN-03 to Port Qasim and uses replacement supply at Tianjin to meet the existing sale.

3

Review the result

At $20.00/MMBtu, the tender adds $1.59M to modelled portfolio profit.

Modelled results depend on the contracts, prices and operating assumptions used.