CASE STUDIES / EU ETS · ANALYSIS · MARCH2026
Comparing modelled EU ETS costs for LNG voyages.
This March 2026 study compares four routes into Gate and four engine types under a common set of emissions-cost assumptions.
€49K to €196K
PER LADEN VOYAGE · STUDY ASSUMPTION €85 PER ALLOWANCE
The voyage coverage assumed in this study.
01 · COVERAGE ASSUMPTIONS
The calculation uses the source’s March 2026 coverage assumptions. The diagram distinguishes voyages within the covered area from voyages entering or leaving it. These are dated study inputs.
HISTORICAL STUDY INPUTS · COVERAGE ASSUMED FOR THE 2026 SCENARIOS
Inside the EU and EEA
100%
Both ports in scope, Norway and Iceland included. The whole journey counts.
Into or out of the EU
50%
One port outside the scheme: half the journey emissions are surrendered.
Outside the EU entirely
0%
Non-EU to non-EU voyages stay outside the system.
ASSUMED COVERED SHARE OF VOYAGE EMISSIONS
Calculate emissions cost from four inputs.
02 · HOW IT WORKS
Multiply fuel consumption by the relevant emissions factor, allowance price and covered share. Keep engine assumptions and units consistent across routes.
Fuel consumption
Tonnes of LNG burned on board: engine, speed and distance set the volume.
Emissions factor
LNG emits 2.8 to 3.5 tCO₂e per tonne of fuel, depending on the engine.
EUA price
The model uses €85 per allowance. The sensitivity test varies that price.
Exposure
The share of the journey the ETS counts: 100%, 50% or nothing.
Use comparable voyage assumptions.
03 · THE ROUTES
Each comparison uses a 174,000 m³ vessel carrying about 3.8 million MMBtu. The reference speed is 16 knots and the allowance price is €85.
Snøhvit
€50–80K
ONE-WAY · €90–150K ROUND TRIP
100% EXPOSURE · INTRA EU/EEA
Nigeria LNG
€80–130K
ONE-WAY · €150–250K ROUND TRIP
50% EXPOSURE · NON-EU LEG
Sabine Pass
€90–150K
ONE-WAY · €170–280K ROUND TRIP
50% EXPOSURE · NON-EU LEG
Qatargas
€120–200K
ONE-WAY · €230–370K ROUND TRIP
50% EXPOSURE · VIA SUEZ
Compare four engines on the same routes.
04 · VESSEL ENGINES
Engine efficiency and the emissions factors used in the study change the calculated bill. The Qatar-route difference between the lowest and highest modelled cost is about €76,000.
The engine room decides up to 60% of the bill.
The engine assumptions produce different emissions costs on the same route. On the Qatar route, the lowest and highest estimates differ by about €76,000.
Diesel DF slow speed · lowest modelled cost
Otto DF slow speed
LBSI
Otto DF medium speed · highest modelled cost
MODELLED EMISSIONS COST · ENGINE TYPES COMPARED AT THE SAME ALLOWANCE PRICE
Vary speed and allowance price.
05 · SENSITIVITIES
Higher allowance prices increase the calculated cost directly. Raising speed from 16 to 19 knots increases the modelled bill by about 20%, depending on the engine.
DIAL 1 · THE EUA INDEX
At fixed fuel consumption and emissions factors, voyage cost rises in direct proportion to the allowance price.
ALLOWANCE-PRICE SENSITIVITY · OTHER INPUTS HELD CONSTANT
DIAL 2 · SPEED
In the Sabine Pass model, sailing at 19 knots instead of 16 increases emissions cost by about 22%. The lowest calculated cost occurs at 13 knots.
SABINE PASS → GATE · JOURNEY EMISSIONS ONLY
Express the result per cargo unit.
06 · COST PER MMBTU
The study divides voyage cost by delivered energy to compare routes in €/MMBtu. Snøhvit has the lowest unit cost of the four routes in this model.
Compare emissions cost per delivered MMBtu.
Divide voyage cost by the assumed 3.8 million delivered MMBtu. Snøhvit has the lowest unit cost among these four modelled routes.
LADEN VOYAGE COST / 3.8 MILLION MMBTU · EURO CENTS PER MMBTU
07 · RESULT
Include emissions cost when comparing voyages.
SOURCE STUDY ESTIMATES RELATIVE TO ITS ASSUMED CARGO VALUE
Separate the historical model from future requirements.
08 · OUTLOOK
The timeline records the source’s assumptions about later policy stages. Recalculate with the rules and allowance price relevant to the actual voyage before using the figures in a commercial decision.
THE CAP
Allowances shrink each year
The emissions cap tightens by 4.3% annually until 2027 and 4.4% from 2028 to 2030, in the policy assumptions cited by the source.
FUELEU MARITIME
Intensity rules since 2025
The source also discusses a separate regime targeting the greenhouse gas intensity of the fuel itself, with penalties and incentives on top of the ETS.
IMO NET ZERO
Global policy assumptions
The source considers a proposed global framework. Its timeline is separate from the voyage-cost calculations shown here.
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
Include emissions costs in the voyage comparison.
X-LNG combines voyage emissions costs with freight, fuel and cargo revenue. Compare the resulting netbacks when choosing routes or vessels.