CASE STUDIES / PORTFOLIO · ANALYSIS · NOV 2025
Henry Hub rallies decide when cargoes get cancelled.
A Mediterranean book with cancellable supply and demand, stress-tested against price, charter and spot-market shifts to map exactly when cancellations spike.
4 → 23
CANCELLED CARGOES, BASE CASE TO WORST PRICE SHOCK
A cancellable Mediterranean book.
01 · THE BOOK
A European utility sources mostly US LNG against Italian and northwest European demand, January 2027 to December 2029. Firm legs carry cancellation rights; spot outlets sit in the US, India and China.
BASE PROFIT $144.2M · $1.38/MMBTU · 4 CANCELLATIONS
Each index pulls a different lever.
02 · THE SWEEP
Sweeping each index from -15% to +15% shows three different machines: Henry Hub rallies drive cancellations up as firm HH supply loses to spot; PSV and TTF slumps spike them as spot beats firm delivery.
Henry Hub
TTF
PSV
Margin often moves the other way.
03 · THE TWIST
More cancellations do not mean better margins, and vice versa. A TTF rally lifts the per-MMBtu margin dramatically because several shorts are TTF-indexed, while a PSV slump costs a third of absolute profit.
Charter seasonality barely matters.
04 · THE CHARTER TEST
Swapping a flat 2024 average charter rate for the full seasonal curve moves profit by about one percent and leaves the cancellation count unchanged at four; only the mix shifts slightly. Price indices rule this book; freight is background noise.
05 · THE VERDICT
Henry Hub rallies drive cancellations up, PSV slumps spike them to 23, and charter seasonality changes almost nothing.
JAN 2027 - DEC 2029 · SEQUEL TO THE MEDITERRANEAN STUDY · ATLANTIC CHARTER RATES BOTH BASINS
THIS ANALYSIS RAN ON X-LNG
The whole analysis, priced inside the optimisation that plans your fleet.
X-LNG runs analyses like this on whole portfolios in seconds, so the answer sits in every netback, diversion and charter call rather than in a spreadsheet weeks later.
